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2022 Senate · WA

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (14.518) = -14.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.518| = 14.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81349, race ID 8950 (538 database).