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2022 Senate · AZ

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.888) = -2.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.887| = 2.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81359, race ID 8919 (538 database).