2022 Governor · AZ
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.668) = -2.669
- Absolute miss = |-2.669| = 2.669
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81359, race ID 8954 (538 database).