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2022 Governor · NM

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 39%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 45.59%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.971 − 45.588 = 6.383
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (6.383) = 0.616
  4. Absolute miss = |0.616| = 0.616

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81361, race ID 8974 (538 database).