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2022 Governor · AZ

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,122 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 49.2%

R+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 49.2 = -2.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -2.40 − (0.668) = -3.069
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.069| = 3.069

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81366, race ID 8954 (538 database).