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2022 Senate · OK

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 36.3% · Republican 58.9%

R+22.6

The certified result

Democrat 35.24% · Republican 61.77%

R+26.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.3 − 58.9 = -22.60
  2. Actual margin = 35.236 − 61.769 = -26.533
  3. Signed miss = -22.60 − (-26.533) = 3.933
  4. Absolute miss = |3.933| = 3.933

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81375, race ID 9482 (538 database).