2022 Senate · NV
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 41%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.777) = 1.223
- Absolute miss = |1.223| = 1.223
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81377, race ID 8937 (538 database).