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2022 Governor · NV

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.510) = 5.510
  4. Absolute miss = |5.510| = 5.510

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81377, race ID 8972 (538 database).