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2022 Governor · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51.7% · Republican 43.1%

D+8.6

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.7 − 43.1 = 8.60
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 8.60 − (10.531) = -1.931
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.931| = 1.931

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81388, race ID 8969 (538 database).