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2022 Governor · NM

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 48%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 45.59%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 48 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.971 − 45.588 = 6.383
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (6.383) = -4.784
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.784| = 4.784

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81389, race ID 8974 (538 database).