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2022 House · NM-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 326 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 58.37% · Republican 40.25%

D+18.1

The certified result

Democrat 58.16% · Republican 41.84%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.37 − 40.25 = 18.12
  2. Actual margin = 58.157 − 41.843 = 16.314
  3. Signed miss = 18.12 − (16.314) = 1.805
  4. Absolute miss = |1.805| = 1.805

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81389, race ID 9253 (538 database).