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2022 Senate · NY

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 40%

D+10.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%

D+14.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 40 = 10.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
  3. Signed miss = 10.60 − (13.982) = -3.382
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.382| = 3.382

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81402, race ID 8939 (538 database).