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2022 Governor · NY

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 48.4 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (7.268) = -8.068
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.068| = 8.068

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81402, race ID 8975 (538 database).