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2022 Governor · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,200 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.86% · Republican 54.76%

R+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.857 − 54.759 = -10.902
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-10.902) = -2.097
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.097| = 2.097

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81403, race ID 8984 (538 database).