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2022 Senate · CO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.4% · Republican 43.3%

D+8.1

The certified result

Democrat 55.88% · Republican 41.27%

D+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.4 − 43.3 = 8.10
  2. Actual margin = 55.884 − 41.266 = 14.618
  3. Signed miss = 8.10 − (14.618) = -6.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.518| = 6.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81404, race ID 8922 (538 database).