Skip to content

2022 Governor · CO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54.2% · Republican 40.8%

D+13.4

The certified result

Democrat 58.53% · Republican 39.18%

D+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.2 − 40.8 = 13.40
  2. Actual margin = 58.534 − 39.184 = 19.350
  3. Signed miss = 13.40 − (19.350) = -5.950
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.950| = 5.950

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81404, race ID 8957 (538 database).