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2022 Senate · NH

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,541 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (9.060) = -10.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.061| = 10.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81413, race ID 8938 (538 database).