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2022 House · NH-1

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 791 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.00% · Republican 45.89%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.004 − 45.886 = 8.118
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (8.118) = -14.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.118| = 14.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81413, race ID 9237 (538 database).