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2022 Senate · VT

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,039 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 32%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 68.47% · Republican 28.03%

D+40.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 32 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 68.469 − 28.028 = 40.441
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (40.441) = -9.441
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.441| = 9.441

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81417, race ID 8949 (538 database).