Skip to content

2022 House · VT-1

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,039 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 29%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.58% · Republican 27.80%

D+34.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 29 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.581 − 27.798 = 34.783
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (34.783) = -9.783
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.783| = 9.783

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81417, race ID 9398 (538 database).