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2022 Governor · NV

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42.8% · Republican 43.2%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.8 − 43.2 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (-1.510) = 1.110
  4. Absolute miss = |1.110| = 1.110

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81418, race ID 8972 (538 database).