Skip to content

2022 Governor · NY

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 53.6% · Republican 44.9%

D+8.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.6 − 44.9 = 8.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = 8.70 − (7.268) = 1.432
  4. Absolute miss = |1.432| = 1.432

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81419, race ID 8975 (538 database).