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2022 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 460 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.913) = -4.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.913| = 4.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81421, race ID 8945 (538 database).