2022 Governor · FL
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 633 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53.4% · Republican 46.6%
D+6.8
The certified result
Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%
R+19.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53.4 − 46.6 = 6.80
- Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
- Signed miss = 6.80 − (-19.403) = 26.203
- Absolute miss = |26.203| = 26.203
The poll overstated the Democrat by 26.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81422, race ID 8959 (538 database).