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2022 Senate · WI

Clarity Campaign Labs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 888 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.008) = 3.007
  4. Absolute miss = |3.007| = 3.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81425, race ID 8951 (538 database).