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2022 Governor · WI

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,089 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 47.5%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 47.5 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (3.397) = -3.697
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.697| = 3.697

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81426, race ID 8986 (538 database).