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2022 Senate · WI

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.008) = -1.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.993| = 1.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81428, race ID 8951 (538 database).