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2022 Governor · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 2,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.510) = -2.490
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.490| = 2.490

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 8972 (538 database).