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2022 House · NV-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 530 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 33.4% · Republican 59.1%

R+25.7

The certified result

Democrat 37.80% · Republican 59.73%

R+21.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.4 − 59.1 = -25.70
  2. Actual margin = 37.801 − 59.732 = -21.931
  3. Signed miss = -25.70 − (-21.931) = -3.769
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.769| = 3.769

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 9234 (538 database).