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2022 House · NV-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 510 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 51.6%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 48.02%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 51.6 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.983 − 48.017 = 3.966
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (3.966) = -8.167
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.167| = 8.167

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 9235 (538 database).