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2022 House · NV-4

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 480 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 50.8% · Republican 47.5%

D+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.41% · Republican 47.59%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.8 − 47.5 = 3.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.415 − 47.585 = 4.830
  3. Signed miss = 3.30 − (4.830) = -1.530
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.530| = 1.530

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 9236 (538 database).