2022 Governor · MN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 836 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.27% · Republican 44.61%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.271 − 44.607 = 7.664
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.664) = 0.336
- Absolute miss = |0.336| = 0.336
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81432, race ID 8970 (538 database).