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2022 Governor · MI

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 47.2%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 47.2 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (10.531) = -9.231
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.231| = 9.231

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81436, race ID 8969 (538 database).