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2022 Senate · NV

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42.5% · Republican 48.1%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.5 − 48.1 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (0.777) = -6.377
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.377| = 6.377

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81437, race ID 8937 (538 database).