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2022 Governor · NV

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.4% · Republican 44.6%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.4 − 44.6 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-1.510) = 0.310
  4. Absolute miss = |0.310| = 0.310

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81437, race ID 8972 (538 database).