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2022 Senate · KS

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 32.6% · Republican 54.2%

R+21.6

The certified result

Democrat 37.04% · Republican 60.00%

R+23.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.6 − 54.2 = -21.60
  2. Actual margin = 37.038 − 60.000 = -22.962
  3. Signed miss = -21.60 − (-22.962) = 1.362
  4. Absolute miss = |1.362| = 1.362

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81438, race ID 8931 (538 database).