2022 House · CA-49
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 568 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.63% · Republican 47.37%
D+5.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.630 − 47.370 = 5.260
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.260) = 0.739
- Absolute miss = |0.739| = 0.739
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81441, race ID 9060 (538 database).