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2022 Governor · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 49.4%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 49.4 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (3.397) = -5.297
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.297| = 5.297

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81445, race ID 8986 (538 database).