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2022 Senate · WI

Marquette University Law School · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.008) = -0.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.993| = 0.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81447, race ID 8951 (538 database).