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2022 Senate · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-16.413) = 10.413
  4. Absolute miss = |10.413| = 10.413

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81450, race ID 8924 (538 database).