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2022 Senate · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 51.4%

R+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 51.4 = -5.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -5.70 − (-3.226) = -2.474
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.474| = 2.474

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81451, race ID 8940 (538 database).