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2022 Senate · PA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 44.8%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 44.8 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (4.913) = -3.113
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.113| = 3.113

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81452, race ID 8945 (538 database).