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2022 Governor · PA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 40.4%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 40.4 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.771) = -2.771
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.771| = 2.771

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81452, race ID 8979 (538 database).