Skip to content

2022 Governor · FL

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 54%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%

R+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 54 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-19.403) = 10.403
  4. Absolute miss = |10.403| = 10.403

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81453, race ID 8959 (538 database).