2022 Senate · PA
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.913) = -1.913
- Absolute miss = |-1.913| = 1.913
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81459, race ID 8945 (538 database).