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2022 Governor · CO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 42.5%

D+7.1

The certified result

Democrat 58.53% · Republican 39.18%

D+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 42.5 = 7.10
  2. Actual margin = 58.534 − 39.184 = 19.350
  3. Signed miss = 7.10 − (19.350) = -12.250
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.250| = 12.250

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81463, race ID 8957 (538 database).