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2022 Senate · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 791 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.18% · Republican 55.43%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.177 − 55.432 = -13.255
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-13.255) = 4.255
  4. Absolute miss = |4.255| = 4.255

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81464, race ID 8936 (538 database).