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2022 Governor · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 850 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.1% · Republican 38.1%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.1 − 38.1 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (14.771) = 0.229
  4. Absolute miss = |0.229| = 0.229

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81465, race ID 8979 (538 database).