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2022 Governor · PA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 53.1% · Republican 42.7%

D+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.1 − 42.7 = 10.40
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 10.40 − (14.771) = -4.371
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.371| = 4.371

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81468, race ID 8979 (538 database).