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2022 Senate · NH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,241 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 47%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 47 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (9.060) = -10.361
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.361| = 10.361

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81469, race ID 8938 (538 database).